An estimated 1.8 to 2.7 million non-citizen immigrants who have registered to vote could be the tipping balance in the November elections according to a new study “How Many Non-Citizen Voters? Enough to Make a Difference: The Impact of Non-Citizen Voting on the American Elections” by immigration researcher David Simcox. 

The study is being released by The Social Contract Press at a News Conference at 1 p.m. on Tuesday, October 7, at the National Press Club (529 14th St., NW) in Washington, D.C.

The report estimates the following numbers of non-citizen voters in the 2006 elections: 127,000 to 235,000 in New York; 476,000 to 700,000 in California; 161,000 to 333,000 in Texas; 117,000 to 232,000 in Florida; 57,000 to 113,000 in New Jersey; 87,000 to 209,000 in Illinois; and 41,000 to 86,000 in Arizona. 

These estimates of illegal voters were projected from a 2007 California poll demonstrating that 12 percent of adult non-citizens are registered to vote.

In addition, the report pinpoints absentee voting as the greatest facilitator of fraudulent voting. “Once one has registered fraudulently, he or she can obtain an absentee ballot for every election thereafter if he or she wishes. The lack of ‘in-person, at-the-polls’ accountability makes absentee ballots the ‘tools of choice’ for those include to commit voter fraud,” the report says.

Noting that the 2008 elections have stimulated urgent voter registration drives by national ethnic groups, Simcox concludes that “there is an urgency for citizens, naturalized or native, to decide whether voting should remain an exclusive attribute of citizenship and to demand the safeguards to make it so.”

David Simcox, who researches and writes on population and immigration trends, examined the U.S. Census and voter registrations along with other national data sources including the 2007 statewide survey by the respected Public Policy Institute of New York; Pew Hispanic Center figures; and the Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles of Loyola Marymount University, among other sources.

Major findings include:

NEW YORK: There were an estimated 127,000 to 235,000 illegal non-citizen voters in the State of New York and at least 100,000 illegal voters in New York City in the 2006 elections, according to the new study.

Simcox examined 2000 and 2006 over-registration rates in Congressional districts in greater New York City -- Bronx, Queens, Kings, New York, Nassau, and Suffolk counties -- most of which have high non-citizen populations. The Congressional districts studied were numbers 5, 10, and 16 in 2000; and numbers 11, 15, and 16 in 2006. Most of them had more registered voters than the eligible population. In both 2000 and 2006, this accounted for more than 70,000 excess registered voters.

CALIFORNIA: There were an estimated 300,000 to 595,000 non-citizens registered as voters in California in 2007, according to the Simcox study. Seven congressional districts in Los Angeles County are estimated to have between 51,400 and 117,150 questionable registrations. In California statewide, 65.9% of those eligible in 2000 were registered to vote, but in the seven congressional districts studied, the eligible to registered percentages are above 90%, suggesting the presence of ineligible voters.

In the 43rd congressional district, there were more people registered than legally eligible to vote. The 47th congressional district (Orange County), held by Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, is among those with a disproportionate number of registered voters. Ms. Sanchez ousted former incumbent Robert K. Dornan for this seat in 1996 in an election marked by claims that as many as 4000 ineligible non-citizens had voted.

TEXAS: The report estimates that there are upwards of half-million non-citizens voters in Texas which could yield as many as 400,000 illegal votes in the upcoming election. 

The report concentrates on 11 Texas counties to determine possible over-registration in the 2000 and 2006 elections. Among the counties examined are those containing the major cities of Houston (Harris), Dallas (Dallas County), Fort Worth (Tarrant), San Antonio (Bexar), Austin (Travis) and El Paso (El Paso County). The report concludes that there were undue voter registrations in the year 2000 of at least 400,000 which may have yielded 280,000 to 329,000 non-citizen votes, including nearly 200,000 in Harris County alone.

Immigration researcher, David Simcox, projects that the over-registration in the state could reach more than a half-million in 2008, noting that the population of Texas since 2000 has been growing by more than 100,000 per year, and there have been increasingly assertive ethnic voter registration drives, with an attractive Latino Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate.

“The Texas legislature has repeatedly considering proof of citizenship requirements for voter registration, but decided in 2007 to defer any action until after the general elections,” the study states. 

FLORIDA: The new study estimates that in 2006 there were between 146,000 and 232,000 non-citizens voters in Florida. Six South Florida Congressional districts in Dade, Broward, and Monroe counties were examined to determine possible over-registration in the 2000 and 2006 elections. The report concludes that there were undue voter registrations of at least 49,000 to 98,000 in districts 19, 20, and 21 in the year 2000; and 30,000 to 63,000 in districts 17, 18, and 25 in the 2006 elections. 

Simcox uses Pew Hispanic Center projections that 58.2% of Hispanic citizens will be registered in 2008. But in Miami-Dade, the presumably citizen Hispanic population is registered at a rate 30 percentage points higher than Pew's national projection, suggesting the presence of at least 182,000 ineligible voters on the rolls.  

Copies of the study are available for interested journalists. For more information, or to set up an interview with the study's author, contact The Social Contract Press at 231-347-1171. 

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